Posts Tagged ‘portfolio’

Casino Royale

14 Sep 2009

In any statistical information system, one can never achieve absolute certainty. Every result is a kind of bet with the possibility of losing. For Semantic Signatures, however, this is more like playing blackjack than like playing roulette. Whether we imagine ourselves as the house or some hotshot card counter, we try our utmost to bend the odds in our favor.

When a given term occurs in a document, we know that there is a certain probability that the document is about a given topic. For example, THRILLER may relate to Michael Jackson or to some recent summer popcorn epic. Similarly MOONWALK may refer to Apollo XI or to a dance move. We would be rash to judge content just on the basis of a single term, but when multiple terms can corroborate each other, we do have a better bet.

The trick here is to able to set up a semantic dictionary so that we can always expect to find a reasonable number of terms in a target document that allow us to make that better bet. This requires careful balancing: we need enough semantic dimensions to be able to distinguish the different important kinds of content and enough terms for each dimension to put it into play. It is much like developing a diverse portfolio of investments to weather any shift in economic climate.

Most people will probably pass on building their own semantic dictionaries. It takes a tremendous amount of work to collect and filter the requisite text data to ground our dictionary weights and to massage all those numbers to get the maximum amount of usable information. But we want to get on the right side of the odds.